Pollster calls Canadian election ‘one of the oddest’ he’s ever seen

If the leadup to Monday’s national vote to decide a new Canadian government has seemed a little different than campaigns in the past, you’re not alone in that thought.

“It’s one of the oddest ones that I’ve seen,” pollster Mario Canseco, president of Research Co., said of the federal election during an interview with NowMedia video host Jim Csek on Wednesday.

Canseco says Research Co. polling “still certainly favours the Liberals at this time,” but refrained from making any predictions with so much uncertainty in the air ahead of the April 28 election.

What he did say is that a lot of people who have historically supported the NDP, Bloc Québécois or Green Party are now coalescing around the Mark Carney-led Liberal Party.

And what that means for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives is that their notable increase in support may not be enough to earn the seats needed to form government.

According to Canseco, the Liberals and Conservatives both earned around 32-33% of the vote in the past two elections and the Conservatives are currently polling at 38%, which “would be enough for a majority government on any other occasion.”

In this odd election cycle, however, that high level of support may not even be sufficient to win a minority government, let alone a majority and control of the Parliament of Canada for four years.

Research Co. currently has the Liberals polling at 43%, largely thanks to those NDP, Bloc and Green voters who have decided to throw their support behind Carney to keep Poilievre out of power.

While much of that transition is happening with former Bloc voters in Quebec, Canseco pointed to the faltering NDP as something that is not ideal for Poilievre’s party.

“I think the Conservatives made a mistake in coming down on Jagmeet Singh so hard,” the pollster said, referring to Poilievre’s “Sellout Singh” and pension-related attacks on the NDP leader over recent months.

“Right now, they need some of those undecided voters to go to the NDP if they want to hold onto some of those ridings.”

He pointed to the last Conservative majority government in 2011 when a “very strong NDP” led by Jack Layton helped Harper cruise to a convincing victory.

Canseco anticipates that the election will fall one of two ways come Monday:

• Historical NDP, Bloc and Green voters will see the current polls, assume Carney doesn’t need their support and give their vote to the party they’ve traditionally favoured. (Advantage Conservatives)
• Historical NDP, Bloc and Green voters will accept that their parties are faltering and throw their support behind the Liberals to prevent a Conservative government. (Advantage Liberals)

Although Canseco said Vancouver Island is a bit of an outlier in the fact that many of those parties’ usual supporters have thrown their support behind the Conservatives, that certainly isn’t the trend nationwide.

He believes there’s a good chance it will come down to Ontario, as “it usually does,” and if the projected Liberal lead of six points in Canada’s most populated province grows to eight or 10, “it’ll pretty much be over.”

If the election is still up in the air once the vote gets through Ontario and into Western Canada, however, the intriguing battleground of BC could very much be the deciding factor.

Canseco and Csek covered all of this and plenty more during their 30-minute sitdown on Wednesday and you can watch the entire interview by clicking this link.