BC election now '2-horse race' between BC NDP and BC Conservatives: pollster

The upcoming provincial election in BC now looks like a “two-horse race” between the BC NDP and BC Conservatives, a new poll suggests.

According to a survey by Liaison Strategies for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada, the BC NDP has a two-point lead over the BC Conservatives.

Premier David Eby’s party is backed by 40 per cent of decided and leaning voters, the poll found, while John Rustad’s insurgent party is favoured by 38 per cent.

Next in the poll is the BC Greens on 10 per cent, while the province’s official opposition, the BC United party, is last among the major parties with nine per cent.

Liaison Strategies’ poll, which was conducted between June 26 and 27, is certain to make grim reading for BC United supporters.

It’s the second survey to put the Greens ahead of Kevin Falcon’s party, with a Research Co. poll released late last month also relegating BC United to fourth place.

Falcon, however, has repeatedly told NowMedia he isn’t concerned about the polls, which have been poor for BC United all year.

Speaking to NowMedia last month, he said the “problem” with polls is that they are “historically, notoriously inaccurate.”

BC United leader @KevinFalcon says polls today are 'historically, notoriously inaccurate.'

'We've got a public that is not paying attention right now.' #bcpoli pic.twitter.com/rfRlCUWNm6

— KelownaNow (@KelownaNow) June 25, 2024

He pointed to recent elections around the world, including in India, to back up his claim.

David Valentin, Liaison Strategies’ principal, said in a statement accompanying the poll that the race in BC “continues to narrow,” with the incumbent BC NDP at real risk of losing power.

Regional numbers, he said, “have tightened considerably,” adding: “In Metro Vancouver the NDP lead 42 per cent to 39 per cent for the Conservatives – so they are effectively tied within the regional margin of error."

"On Vancouver Island the NDP are leading with 43 per cent followed by the Greens (24 per cent) and Conservatives (23 per cent) effectively tied for second,” he explained.

"Outside of Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island, it's the Conservatives who are leading by 15 points over the NDP (48-33)."

He added: “Increasingly, in most of the province it looks like a two-horse race."

Valentin did explain, however, that there is “plenty of time” before election day on Oct. 19.

"For now the question is who can build momentum and break the deadlock as the parties look increasingly even in what is a very competitive election," he said.

The poll was based on the responses of 1,097 BC voters.

Thumbnail photo credit: X/David Eby/John Rustad