One of British Columbia’s most prominent pollsters has sat down with NowMedia to discuss all things psephological.
Mario Canseco, the president of Vancouver-based Research Co., spoke with NowMedia host Jim Csek about the upcoming BC election, including the collapse of BC United and rise of the BC Conservatives, as well as federal politics and the Trump–Harris showdown set for the fall.
Canseco’s most recent poll asked what Canadians thought about the idea of creating a system of mandatory national service. He has also published polls on the death penalty, changing BC’s name and the monarchy.
His most recent political poll in BC, conducted in July, put the BC NDP slightly ahead of the BC Conservatives. But, following the news last week of BC United’s withdrawal from the election, Canseco said he’s going to bide his time before the next poll.
“You know, there's part of me that goes, Do it this weekend, you know, start to figure out what goes on,” he told Csek on Friday.
“But I think we need to wait for the dust to settle. I think there's a lot of confusion. People who might have read a story about the two parties working together might be assuming that their candidate from United is now the candidate for the Conservatives or the other way around.”
The election, however, was already turning into a “two-horse race” before Kevin Falcon announced BC United’s retreat, Canseco said.
Polls – which have gradually got worse for BC United and better for the Conservatives over the last year – played a huge role in the victory of John Rustad’s party.
Some of the BC United MLAs who defected to the Conservatives mentioned, or alluded to, polling as they announced their change of party, while the Conservatives also repeatedly boasted of their popularity in the surveys.
BC United leader @KevinFalcon says polls today are 'historically, notoriously inaccurate.'
— KelownaNow (@KelownaNow) June 25, 2024
'We've got a public that is not paying attention right now.' #bcpoli pic.twitter.com/rfRlCUWNm6
Falcon, however, took the opposite approach, dismissing polls on numerous occasions, arguing they were “notoriously inaccurate,” and repeatedly saying that Adrian Dix lost the election in 2013 despite being forecast to win. Last month, he even claimed polls were “meaningless.”
Not wise, according to Canseco.
“I think it was a little bit misguided to always point at the example of 2013 as a way to essentially say that public opinion surveys don't matter,” he said.
Part of why people think polls are inaccurate, he added, is because of a “fundamentally flawed analysis” of Trump’s victory in 2016.
“The surveys at the national level, including one that I conducted, suggested that Trump was going to lose the popular vote,” Canseco explained. “And that is exactly what happened.”
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He added: “To essentially blanket everybody under the same idea that surveys don't matter – you know, we saw the soundbites coming out of Kevin Falcon, essentially saying, I'm getting a great response at the door – if that were the case, he wouldn't have quit on Wednesday.”
During his chat with Csek, Canseco also discussed:
The “very interesting” situation in the Okanagan ahead of the election
The importance of making “an emotional connection” in winning elections
How polls work, and why larger samples are not necessary to make accurate forecasts
The “immense” effect of federal politics on the BC election
Falcon’s rebranding of the BC Liberals and failed attempt to “meet everybody in the middle”
The fate of the federal Liberals and NDP
How young people are increasingly favouring conservative parties
The role played by polls in the toppling of Joe Biden
As polls have once again proved their power in an election – months before an election, in this case – Canseco also provided some pithy advice for politicians.
“It's not [a good idea] when you see a bad poll [to] say, Oh, they don't know what they're doing – I'm a walking poll and I knock on doors and I know more than anybody else,” he said.
“Because that is the quickest way to end your political career.”
The BC election is set to be held on Oct. 19.
